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Sunday :: Mar 29, 2020

Letter From California

by paradox

02/29/20 0654.52 PST
San Jose, California

I always dreaded that something truly terrible would happen in the Trump presidency, but I never imagined the massive scope of shock and damage Covid-19 would bring upon the country so quickly, it was never on anyone’s radar that a threat existed that could shut down approximately half the American economy.

Even as China was getting hammered it never occurred to anyone that should Covid-19 arrive here it would mean shutting down non-essential business and sequestering everyone else at home. After enough deaths and infections finally crashed home the reality of such drastic action oh my god the world has really gone on tilt.

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paradox @ 8:07 AM :: Link :: Comments (2) :: Digg It! ::

Thursday :: Mar 19, 2020

Gallup and Trump's Approval Rating - Again

by Deacon Blues

At the risk of ploughing old ground, from 16 years ago, please be advised that any Gallup poll on Donald Trump's job approval is suspect. Why? Because just like what Gallup did to inflate George W. Bush's chances in 2004, Gallup today is using a sample they constructed that over-weights Republicans and conservatives.

Don't believe me? There's been talk over the last several weeks, and especially this week about Trump's approval rating in the Gallup poll only dropping 5 points in the midst of his clusterf*ck negligence as an alleged war time president in dealing with COVID-19.

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- As the COVID-19 pandemic hits the U.S. and President Donald Trump's impeachment acquittal becomes a distant memory for Americans, his 44% job approval rating is down five percentage points, and back to where it was before the Senate acquitted him on the House's impeachment charges.
The latest reading is from Gallup's March 2-13 poll, which was conducted as the novel coronavirus spread throughout the U.S., eventually leading to international travel restrictions, the cancellation of major U.S. events and widespread school closures. The magnitude of the COVID-19 crisis in the U.S. quickly evolved over the poll's field period, and Americans' (particularly Democrats' and independents') concern about it increased sharply. The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded historic declines in the past two weeks.

But even as Gallup notes the significantly increased concern amongst Democrats and independents, there's a reason why his Gallup approval ratings were higher than other polls, and why his recent drop was only five points. If you scroll down to the "Bottom Line" section of the story on the recent poll results, and click on the link to their actual questions and poll history, you also get to see the demographic makeup of the sample Gallup uses for their Trump approval polls.

Party Identification
30.0% Republican
37.3% Independent
29.6% Democratic

Political Ideology
39.4% Conservative
36.6% Moderate
21.7% Liberal

64.9% White
33.8% Non-White

Ask yourself these questions:
1. Is a representative sample of Americans right now equally Republican and Democratic?
2. Are there really twice as many conservatives in America right now as liberals?
3. Are there really twice as many whites in America right now as non-whites?

Just asking.

Deacon Blues @ 11:40 AM :: Link :: Comments (6) :: TrackBack (0) :: Digg It! ::
Tuesday :: Mar 17, 2020

Santa Clara County: Shut it Down

by paradox

“Is this bad boy yours?” The bike shop owner asked me on Sunday as he wheeled out my Pee-Wee bike, leading to a newish feeling of pride for me, for material possession has never been much my thing. But I do admit to being absurdly happy with my Pee-Wee bike, after years of zooming around on my carbon frame I was like dude, are you ever going to the Tour de France?

The hell with it, so I got a steel frame sorta-commute posture mountain bike with front suspension, put on baskets, installed puncture-resistant tubes, got blazing dual headlights and a serious back red flasher, cleats and a bell. It weighs a ton but I’m still good with it, I was always a heavy power rider at 215 pounds anyway, and I don’t wear a helmet either, god do I have a blast on that bike, good music and a salt-encrusted A’s hat, it’s the only way to ride.

Continue reading "Santa Clara County: Shut it Down"
paradox @ 5:48 AM :: Link :: Comments (3) :: Digg It! ::
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