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Sunday :: Aug 20, 2017

Circling the Drain


by Steve

As commenter Craig noted in the previous post, a sure sign that the bloom is coming off Trump’s rose are the poll numbers from the most recent NBC News/Marist poll, which shows that in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which were the three states that gave him his Electoral College victory, Trump’s approval/disapproval numbers are tanking.

As I noted in yesterday’s post, Nate Cohn’s observations in the NYT over the weekend were that Trump won those three states by the slimmest of margins, but he won them by pulling Obama blue collar voters from 2008 away from Hillary. According to this recent poll, which was taken before and during the Charlottesville meltdown, Trump’s approval rating in all three states has fallen into the mid-30’s. One wonders how bad Trump’s numbers are now in the Hillary states.

Remember several things when you keep hearing media commenters tell us that these results will be irrelevant if Trump’s base stays with him: First, his hardcore base states are nowhere near enough to carry him or the GOP to victory in 2018 and 2020; he won 2016 in these three key states that Hillary overlooked. Second, the Democrats can pick up more than half of the new House seats they need in 2018 just by focusing on California and these three states, which now show Trump tanking.

As Trump keeps opening his mouth and banging away on Twitter, the Democrats get closer and closer to taking back Congress. His missteps, coupled with a Democratic message hammering Trump for his dereliction of duty and broken promises will carry it over the finish line next year, assuming the Cabinet doesn’t take Trump out sooner by way of the 25th amendment.

Steve @ 3:41 PM :: Link :: Comments (0) :: TrackBack (0) :: Digg It! ::


Friday :: Aug 18, 2017

What Bannon's Departure Could Do


by Steve

I've been away from blogging for a while due to a number of reasons, but let's just say that the developments of the last several weeks with the Trump administration, coupled with today's news about Steve Bannon's departure portend that Donald Trump faces new enemies from within his own base. Trump's pathetic statements and performance from this past Tuesday are his and his alone, regardless of whether or not they were inspired by Bannon. But it appears that Bannon will now be freed and financed to set up his nationalist/populist movement to keep Trump accountable either through a return to Breitbart, or through a new media venture with the Mercers.

The fundamental difference between Bannon and his Breitbart colleagues and Trump is that the former believe they won the presidency due to the message and issues dealing with immigration, trade deals, and Main Street economics whereas Trump believes he won because millions love him. Nate Cohn's piece in the NYT yesterday showed that Trump pulled millions of blue-collar Democrats over to him and away from Hillary because Trump married his personality with the economic nationalism espoused by Bannon and his ilk. By Cohn's estimation, two thirds of those blue collar Democrats may be lost to the party for the near future, but one third of them are persuadable on the message and not the messenger.

What this means is that with Trump wounded now and about to see his base splintered by Bannon's next gambit, the Democrats can get back some of those blue collar voters by focusing much less on identity politics and reengaging more on kitchen table economic issues. Yes, the ongoing Russia investigation and Trump's own stumbles will allow Democrats to keep him pinned down to a degree, but that will be no substitute for a clear message espousing trade deals that work for Main Street, an immigration reform based on economic benefit for all, an infrastructure plan that creates real jobs and not tax breaks, and a tax reform that simplifies without enriching the wealthy.

Steve @ 2:42 PM :: Link :: Comments (1) :: TrackBack (0) :: Digg It! ::
Sunday :: Aug 6, 2017

A Government of Laws, Not Men


by paradox

A statement by John Adams enshrined into the mythology of the American Way, to live here means not to live under the brutal violent heel of some tyrant where various abuses can arrive at any moment, but a stable, relatively quiet existence of civil codification that must be adhered to by everyone.

You know how The Man puts it, the tectonically mighty American Rule of Law, implacable in its righteousness for the continued happiness of our little peole. Ahhh, yeah.

Continue reading "A Government of Laws, Not Men"
paradox @ 7:26 AM :: Link :: Comments (0) :: Digg It! ::
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